The number of kids playing tournament chess is going down in Idaho!

Report to ICA for the Idaho Scholastic State Championship

March 27, 2010

            During the open board meeting at the Idaho Closed, concerns about the low scholastic numbers were raised by numerous individuals.  The following graphs indicate trends for the years 2006 – 2010 for the Idaho Scholastic State Chess Championship. 

Figure 1.  Total numbers of kids for each section.  This graph shows that the majority of the kids attending the tournament are in the elementary years, primarily in grades 2-5.

Figure 2.  This graph shows the percentage of kids in elementary, middle, and high school years attending the tournament.  The most stable group appears to be the high school sections.  There is variability in the elementary and middle school percentages.  Between 70% and 80% of the tournament is comprised of elementary kids.  The fewest number of kids is in the high school sections (less than 10%).

Figure 3.  This graph shows the total number of kids attending the tournament.  It also shows a trend-line that was a linear correlation.  The trend-line indicates that overall scholastic numbers are declining.

Figure 4.  This graph shows the total number of elementary kids. This group shows greater variability in total numbers and a marked decrease in participation from 2006 to 2010 compared to middle or high school groupings.  The low R-square value indicates the variability and the high slope of the regression is greatest for elementary section. 

Figure 5.  This graph shows the total number of middle school kids.  This group is declining from 2006 to 2010.

Figure 6.  This graph shows the total number of kids in the High School Section.  This group is declining from 2006 to 2010.

Figure 7.  This graph shows the total number of kids in the Championship Section.  This group is declining from 2006 to 2010.

Figure 8.  This graph shows the average gain (above the x-axis) or loss (below the x-axis) for each grade transition.  The tournament in grows between K and 1^st grade, 1^st and 2^nd grade, and 2^nd to 3^rdgrade.  From 3^rd to 4^th grade on to graduation, the tournament declines each year.  In fact, each grade transition loses 25%.  The largest loss to the tournament occurred in the 3^rd to 4^th grade year (+16 +(-3) = -19).  In actuality, there are only 5 students less in the 6^th to 7^th grade transition (-16 + (-11) = -5).

Conclusion: 

            As illustrated in the above figures, the Idaho State Scholastic Chess Championship is not growing, but declining in the number of players from 2006 to 2010.  Despite this, the middle school and high school sections are the most stable in terms of numbers in the tournament.  The elementary, middle school, and high school sections are all declining, however, at different rates.  The middle school and high school sections are declining the least fastest (you have to think about what “declining least fastest!” means).  Each year the tournament loses 25% of the previous players on average, beginning in 3^rd grade.  Though the bulk of the tournament (>70 %) are from the elementary sections, the greatest rate of decline is in the elementary sections, specifically in the 3^rd to 4^th grade transition. 

            Further discussion is needed to decide what may be the causes of these declines, however discussion should be focused on retention of players in each section with emphasis on 2^nd, 3^rd, and 4^th grades.